Analyst Robin Black frequently delivers some of the best pre-fight breakdowns before highly anticipated UFC fights, and the UFC 205 main event scrap between UFC featherweight champion Conor McGregor and UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez is no different.
Black gives an in-depth look at the strategies of both men, pre-championship, and post-championship using a scale he calls the ‘Sapp-Alvarez’ scale. On one hand, Black analyzes the ‘heart’ of fighters using his ‘W.A.T.E.S.’ method (Willingness & Ability To Embrace Suffering) while on the other hand he weighs a fighter’s frequency to either avoid, or embrace, risks.
The fight is certainly one that has MMA fans torn, while some believe that the precision of Conor McGregor’s striking will be too much for Alvarez to handle, others believe that the heart & wrestling of Alvarez will result in the Philadelphia native leaving The Empire State with the lightweight championship.
During the UFC 205 press conference several months ago, McGregor boldly predicted that he would become just the second man to finish Alvarez throughout the course of his thirteen year professional MMA career. On the flip side however, Alvarez believes that he will finish McGregor, as he has predicted that he will defeat McGregor around the 9-minute mark of the fight, drawing insight from McGregor’s first fight with Nate Diaz, which he lost via submission.
“I THINK WE DO IT UNDER THE NINE-MINUTE MARK. BIG, BIG HEAVY SHOTS, HE GOES DOWN AND THEN SUBMISSION. I CAN SEE IT ENDING MUCH LIKE THE (NATE) DIAZ FIGHT WHERE I LAND THE HEAVY SHOT AND THEN I FINISH WITH A SUBMISSION.”
McGregor has yet to be stopped by strikes inside the Octagon, however he has been submitted three times over the course of his professional career, with the most recent being a rear naked choke loss to Nate Diaz at UFC 196 back in March, which was also the first loss of his UFC career.
McGregor rebounded from the loss by defeating Diaz in a highly anticipated rematch at UFC 202 in August, ultimately earning himself a crack at Alvarez’ lightweight championship, and the possibility of becoming the first ever simultaneous two-division UFC champion.