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EPB Macro Research

A composite index of all future employment readings from the regional Fed surveys continues to move to the downside which indicates weaker employment data (from the manufacturing sector) is likely ahead.

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Home Prices In "Correction" Territory?

The median sales price of a newly constructed home has fallen 10.3% from the cycle peak.

EPB Macro Research

by

TheDerek

Despite "Valuation Hawks", Utilities Continue To Be The Market Leader

Valuations are important for long-term performance. The valuation, however, especially when using a 1-year forward PE ratio, has virtually no impact on the medium term as the data clearly shows. Utilities have been "expensive" for months yet the sector has returned over 30% in 19 months, far from a "short-term" trade.

EPB Macro Research

by

billbird

Has The Housing Market Been Saved By Lower Interest Rates?

The declines in the volume of transactions has moderated in recent months, aided by lower interest rates on the long end of the Treasury curve.

EPB Macro Research

The Treasury Rally Is Set To Continue - Here's Why

I would continue to expect lower bond yields based on the leading indicators of growth and the leading indicators of inflation (not covered here), which are also pointing lower.

EPB Macro Research

Bonds Are Up Nearly 40% In The Past 9 Months - There Is Still More To Go

While most of the media and analyst attention has shifted towards the equity market and the large declines in stocks, the bigger and more profitable move has been in the Treasury bond market.

EPB Macro Research

You Can Fight The Fed, But You Can't Fight The Cycle

Is buy and hold the right strategy? When the economy turns lower, do you have to suffer through 40% losses in order to adhere to the Buffett disciples suggesting to just keep buying stocks? These are some of the most common questions investors ask on a daily basis.

EPB Macro Research

Cycles Matter

The most important factor regarding your asset allocation is the economic cycle.

EPB Macro Research

Instantly Improve Your Returns By Spotting Economic Inflection Points

The performance of various asset classes and equity sectors varies greatly depending on the trending direction of economic growth and inflation. Understanding the economic cycle and the rate of change in economic growth is the biggest factor for long-term returns.

EPB Macro Research

Worried About Inflation? Where Will It Come From?

Where will inflation emerge? Most cyclical drivers of inflation are pointing lower.

EPB Macro Research

The "Real" Reason Behind The Rally In Gold

Real interest rates declined sharply on the week, providing a tailwind to both gold and silver.

EPB Macro Research