Has The Housing Market Been Saved By Lower Interest Rates?

EPB Macro Research

The report on existing home sales "EHS" came in better than expected and was generally a report that showed improvement in rate of change terms.

Total EHS increased 2.5% month over month to a rate of 5.340M units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, a rate that is roughly 7% from the cyclical peak from November of 2017.

EHS Nominal
Source: National Association of Realtors, EPB Macro Research

While still in a cyclical trend lower, the move in both total EHS and single-family EHS, the largest segment, have generally improved since December 2018, aided by collapsing interest rates on the long end of the Treasury curve.

Existing Single Family home slaes
Source: National Association of Realtors, EPB Macro Research

The year over year change in EHS has been negative for 15 consecutive months, the longest streak since the housing crisis but the rate of deceleration has been moderating, a positive sign in second derivative terms (the growth rate is getting less negative).

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