Does Bitcoin Always Rise Over The Weekend?


Bitcoin has had a pattern of trading very well on Sunday's and continuing that momentum into the early part of the week. If anything, that pattern has become more dramatic since Bitcoin Futures were launched on the CME (Bitcoin Futures Earn a C- For First Week ).

Bitcoin Daily Pricing Since November 1 (Source Bloomberg)

I think there are a couple of reasons this is occurring.

One possible reason is that people are spending their weekends learning how to set up Cryptocurrency wallets and are opening accounts on cryptocurrency exchanges. This was almost certainly the case over the Thanksgiving weekend when Coinbase added a large number of new users. It makes sense that new investors can't spend the time to do this during the week, so they do it over the weekend. It certainly could have happened again last weekend with the holidays in Europe and the U.S. We should see more of that occurring this coming week since many people have had time off.

I am not sure that this is a sustainable pattern - it is getting more difficult to believe that anyone who wants a cryptocurrency account hasn't opened one, I wouldn't be surprised to see another surge at the start of next week.

The other reason is that Bitcoin is global and isn't tied to American hours. The demand that is coming out of Asia - with China, the Koreas and Japan often cited as buyers, builds up and is 'put to work' over the weekend. The exchanges that most U.S. sources follow see this as a price increase on Sunday night, but I think it is more continuous demand than that. The price action does seem to bring out more buyers. This Sunday night phenomenon also coincides, more recently, with the opening of futures trading. Pent up global demand gets put to work as the markets open, fueling ongoing buying at the start of the week.

I think Bitcoin will be more active in non-traditional U.S. hours than any other asset we have ever witnessed, BUT, I don't think that will lead to buying as consistently as it has recently.

I think Bitcoin could rise into next week, but my view would be to sell into that strength as I think the next leg is ongoing weakness, retracing levels seen before Bitcoin futures were launched (sub $10,000). The main reason for that view is I think the 'adoption' rate by new buyers has slowed dramatically and questions about scalability and concerns about Governments being more openly aggressive against it, will weigh on prices.