Here Are The States Goldman Thinks Will Be Forced To Reverse Opening Plans
Yesterday we showed that according to Goldman calculations, the prevalence of coronavirus symptoms is rising, with the share of patients seeking care with symptoms of Covid-like illness at 3.5%, up 0.4% from 2 weeks ago. Daily confirmed have risen steadily over the past several days to 86 per million, ending a 2-month decline, and clearly spooking the market. A big part of this is due to increased testing: indeed, the volume of daily coronavirus tests has risen 23% over the last two weeks, while the positive test rate has risen by 1.3pp to 6.2%. On the flipside, fatalities have declined over the last two weeks (-12% to 1.9 per million), although fatalities lag new cases by multiple weeks.
Today, in an update to its tracker, the bank writes that as a result of diminishing available hospital capacity, some states will be forced to reconsider their reopening plans. According to Goldman, a decline in hospital capacity below 20% could pressure states to consider slowing or reversing reopening. In this context, according to the latest CDC data, Alabama and Maryland currently have 23% of ICU beds available (with Covid patients accounting for 7% and 13% of occupancy respectively), and Arizona has 25% available (with Covid patients accounting for 11%).
The bank also notes that the COVID-19 patient share of total occupancy has risen steadily to 14% in Arizona, accounting for most of the increase in total occupancy this month. In Texas and Florida, new cases have risen sharply, but the COVID-19 share of hospital occupancy has only edged up. Hospitalizations lag other indicators such as symptoms and new confirmed cases.